The crucial question to be answered is:
What if Mullaperiyar dam breaks, in spite of all the strengthening done so far, with the dam burst resulting from torrential rains or earthquakes or due to structural weaknesses of the aging 116 year old dam?
The dam holds 15 tmc of water (at its full capacity) at an elevation of approx 3000 ft from msl. The water level has a height of 155 feet at its maximum level and length of 1200 feet at the top and 139 feet at the base.
If the dam breaks, what is the rate of flow of water downstream? What will be the height of the column of water and the force with which it will strike Idukki Dam, 45 kms downstream?
Even if Idukki Dam is able to hold the 15 tmc of water, will it sustain the force of the gushing waters and the waves formed in the Idukki reservoir?
How much time will it take to traverse the 244 km course of Periyar River to reach Arabian Sea?
Considering the topography of the mountain range through which the gushing waters have to pass through, where are the possibilities of new ribs or new rivers (flow channels) being formed? Which areas in Kerala will be most affected by this scenario?
What will be the impact on 11 other dams downstream and the waters held by them?
Assume the spillways are able to divert some of the water.
Consider the main dam and baby dam also breaking.
-Joseph Ponnoly